MoneySpider Weekly — 11 October 2026

Two weeks ago the bond market's tightening reached corporate credit. This week it reached the United Kingdom's own cost of borrowing. The UK 30-year gilt yield broke above 6% on 1 October for the first time since 1998, peaking at 6.034% on 7 October. In the US, the 30-year Treasury touched 5.7041% the same day, its highest level since 2002. Both moves sat at the long end: 2-year US yields stayed flat all week, between 4.75% and 4.84%, so this reads as a term-premium story rather than a bet on what the Fed does next.

The credit market that drove the last fortnight's story went quiet instead of resolving. The spread on US junk bonds plateaued between 3.00% and 3.15% for nearly two weeks — wider than the 21 September low of 2.68%, but neither narrowing back toward it nor widening further. September's jobs report, still the freshest labour data, added just 29,000 jobs against 90,000 expected, with the prior two months revised down a net 60,000.

Consumer sentiment found a fresh low on one measure only. The University of Michigan's October preliminary reading fell to 46.3, below the first percentile of the survey's 70-plus-year history — but within that figure, how people see today's conditions fell sharply while their view of the year ahead actually ticked up slightly.

This week's signal: Tightening Into Fracture, going global. Confidence stays Medium, capped: the US figures are confirmed from primary sources; the UK gilt print is press-reported and not yet independently re-confirmed against the Bank of England's own curve. Our falsification test: evidence that this week's numbers reflect a one-off data-quality air pocket rather than a durable move. We looked for one and didn't find one — though that is itself the strongest alternative reading, and we are leaving it open rather than closing it for you. The first checks: the UK Autumn Budget, and the FOMC's decision on 27–28 October.