Polis

The State

MoneySpider | The Watchtower
What is coming, and how far away ·
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Polis · The State

The Long Fuse

Some costs get priced when they're visible and near. Some don't, when they're diffuse and far. This is the pension promise's paper trail — not a story about which party is honest, but about which costs the political process can see.

Visible & Near
4 Acts · 3 governments
Raised the State Pension age — legislated in 1995, 2007, 2011 and 2014, across Conservative, Labour and Coalition governments.
Diffuse & Far
Unbroken since 2011
The triple lock — one uprating cycle's earnings component paused in 2022/23; otherwise untouched across every government since.
Scored entry Unscored context marker Confirmedwhat the Act did Inferredthe causal interpretation
Reading it. Four Pensions Acts (1995, 2007, 2011, 2014), spanning Conservative, Labour and Coalition governments, each raised the State Pension age as its cost became visible and near. The 2011 triple lock — a single guarantee, legislated the same year and by the same government as that year's Pensions Act — has gone almost untouched since, bar a one-year, pandemic-driven technical suspension of its earnings component (2022/23, restored the following year). Inferred reading: the political process disciplines costs it can see and struggles to discipline costs it can't — a mechanism, not a verdict on any one party or decision.

Scope. The scored ledger covers 1995–2023 only. Earlier history (1908 Old Age Pensions Act through the 1986 SERPS cuts) and the 2016 New State Pension Act are shown as unscored context markers, not scored Expansions/Retrenchments — the 1980 earnings-link break and 1986 SERPS cuts were also retrenchments of a diffuse, future-dated benefit, and whether they fit the same "visible costs disciplined, diffuse costs aren't" mechanism is an open research question, not yet resolved (see MS-SKDLF-Log.md). Grouped and ordered by mechanism throughout, never by party; government names are factual labels, not a sorting axis or a colour code.

Sources. House of Commons Library, State Pension triple lock (CBP-7812) and State Pension age timetable (CBP-7405); GOV.UK/DWP analysis of State Pension age changes from the 1995 and 2011 Pensions Acts; Pensions Act 2014, s.26 (SPA to 67, 2026–2028); Social Security (Uprating of Benefits) Act 2021 (2022/23 earnings-component suspension).
MoneySpider | 🕳️ The Gold Hole
The Great British Gold Sell-Off · 1999–2002 · A MoneySpider Special
Gold spot ($/oz)
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Fetching live gold spot price…
⚠  Gold Hole Index — Total Opportunity Cost
Current market value of gold sold, less proceeds received
Between July 1999 and March 2002, the UK Treasury sold 395 tonnes of gold — roughly 58–60% of Britain's entire reserves — at or near the bottom of a 20-year bear market in the metal. The pre-announcement of sales is widely held to have depressed the gold price before the first auction even took place. This index quantifies the cost to the British public.
Sale Facts — Fixed (National Audit Office)
Gold Sold
395 t
12.70 million troy oz
Avg Sale Price
$274.92
NAO verified figure
Proceeds Raised
$3.50bn
17 auctions over 3 years
Market Low (Jul 1999)
$253/oz
20-year bear market bottom
Live Calculations — Update Gold Price Above to Refresh
Current Value of Gold Sold
Gold Hole Index
Opportunity cost of the sale
Gold Price Multiple
Today vs avg sale price
Cost per UK Household
28.5m households (ONS 2023)
Cost per UK Taxpayer
33m taxpayers (HMRC 2023) · USD
Gold CAGR Since Sale
p.a. from mid-2001 to today
Years Running
Since programme midpoint
Gold Price Context — Sale Period to Today
“The decision to announce the sales in advance was unusual and, it is generally accepted, depressed the price obtained.” — House of Commons Treasury Select Committee, 2007
Auction Programme Reference
MetricFigureNote
Total auctions17Quarterly, Jul 1999 – Mar 2002
Gold per auction~25 tonnesApproximate average
First auction price~$256/ozNear 20-year market low
Average achieved$274.92/ozNational Audit Office figure
Average in sterling~£175/ozUsing period GBP/USD rates
Total proceeds~$3.5bnMatches 12.7m oz × $274.92
Reserves share sold~58–60%Down from ~715t to ~315t
Stated rationaleDiversify reservesInto US$, €, ¥ bonds
Sources & methodology: National Audit Office (2000); HM Treasury auction results; House of Commons Treasury Select Committee report (2007); World Gold Council. Gold quantity: 395 metric tonnes = 12,699,507 troy oz (1 metric tonne = 32,150.7 troy oz). Gold Hole Index = (current gold price × oz sold) − actual proceeds of $3.5bn. Per-household and per-taxpayer figures in USD. CAGR calculated from mid-2001 (programme midpoint) to today's date, recomputed on each page load. UK households: 28.5m (ONS 2023). UK income taxpayers: 33m (HMRC 2023–24). This analysis is for editorial and informational purposes only. MoneySpider is a broadcast project.