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MoneySpider · Micro Lens

Mathematical Scenarios

What today's Cape Fear reading implies for the index in 10 years, under different valuation assumptions — a calculator, not a forecast

CAPE today

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Real S&P 500 today

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10yr real earnings base

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Real S&P ÷ CAPE

Earnings base, 2036

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at assumed growth (today's dollars)

Assumed real S&P earnings growth, per year for 10 years 2.0%

Nominal figures compound the real figures above by the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (FRED T10YIE — 2.24% as of 13 Aug 2026), i.e. what Treasury markets currently expect average annual inflation to run at over the next decade. This is a market-implied assumption, not a house forecast, and is refreshed alongside Cape Fear's monthly update.

Estimated real total return to 2036, by CAPE multiple applied

What this is: Cape Fear's CAPE ratio implies a 10-year average real earnings base (real S&P 500 price ÷ CAPE). Grow that base at an assumed real rate for 10 years, then multiply by a chosen CAPE multiple, and you get an estimated real index level. Only the growth rate (slider) and the multiple (four rows below) are assumptions — everything else is arithmetic on today's actual reading. Move the slider; the only scenario that avoids a real decline is the market staying exactly as expensive as it is today. The Nominal toggle adds one further, separately-disclosed assumption — market-implied inflation — on top of the real figures; it doesn't change the underlying real analysis, just re-expresses it in future dollars.

Source: CAPE, real price and 10-year mean CAPE derived from the same Robert Shiller (Yale) dataset feeding Cape Fear (see that block for full series and methodology). Historical means: full history since Apr 1881, since Jan 1990, and since Jan 2009. Refresh alongside Cape Fear's monthly update. Inflation assumption: FRED T10YIE (10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate).

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The Debt Garden — Full Scoreboard · Click column header to sort · — = data pending

Company	Valued@	ATH% AGE
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MoneySpider · Micro Lens

Cape Fear

Shiller CAPE Ratio — Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings, S&P 500, monthly since 1881

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Mean (full history)

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Median (full history)

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Historic low

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Historic high

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What this is: CAPE = real S&P 500 price ÷ average real (inflation-adjusted) earnings over the trailing 10 years — a valuation measure developed by Robert Shiller and John Campbell (1988) that smooths out single-year earnings swings. A higher reading means the index is priced richer relative to a decade of underlying earnings; it says nothing about near-term direction.

Source: Robert J. Shiller, Yale University (shillerdata.com — the same public dataset multpl.com and MacroMicro republish). Series cross-checked against multpl.com's published monthly table for currency; full history reconstructed independently for this chart, not scraped from any third-party chart or branding. "Shiller PE"/"CAPE Ratio" used generically — not to be confused with the trademarked Shiller Barclays CAPE® Index Family. "Cape Fear" is a MoneySpider house nickname for this valuation gauge, not a claim about future direction.

The High Water Mark

Every stock MoneySpider monitors, measured against the highest level it has ever reached in our records — organised by the Eight Legs.

High Tides

Companies at or within 1% of their recorded high (99.0% or above).

Company	% of high

The Eight Legs

Companies covered and the simple (unweighted) average distance from their highs, leg by leg.

Leg	Companies	Avg % of high

* Live price above the stored high — the price has moved past the highest level in MoneySpider's weekly-updated monitoring records; the record catches up at the next weekly refresh.
Highs are the highest prices in MoneySpider's monitoring records.
All figures are ratios of each stock's own price in its own listing currency — unaffected by exchange rates or splits. Prices via Google Finance through the MoneySpider monitoring sheet; refreshed on page load.

Leg by Leg

The full register — every stock MoneySpider monitors, grouped by leg and ranked by distance from its high. Recent form on the left, the long verdict on the right.

Company	% of 52-wk high	% of high (age)

Ranked within each leg by % of high, best first. Age is how long ago the high was set — weeks under two years, then years. Green marks a company at or within 1% of its high.
* Live price above the stored high — the price has moved past the highest level in MoneySpider's weekly-updated monitoring records; the record catches up at the next weekly refresh.
Highs are the highest prices in MoneySpider's monitoring records.
All figures are ratios of each stock's own price in its own listing currency — unaffected by exchange rates or splits. Prices via Google Finance through the MoneySpider monitoring sheet; refreshed on page load.