Each card reads its figure directly from the panel below it at page load — not a separately maintained copy. If a panel's own numbers update, these do too.

MoneySpider · Micro Lens

Mathematical Scenarios

What today's Cape Fear reading implies for the index in 10 years, under different valuation assumptions — a calculator, not a forecast

CAPE today

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Real S&P 500 today

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10yr real earnings base

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Real S&P ÷ CAPE

Earnings base, 2036

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at assumed growth (today's dollars)

Assumed real S&P earnings growth, per year for 10 years 2.0%

Nominal figures compound the real figures above by the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (FRED T10YIE — 2.24% as of 13 Aug 2026), i.e. what Treasury markets currently expect average annual inflation to run at over the next decade. This is a market-implied assumption, not a house forecast, and is refreshed alongside Cape Fear's monthly update.

Estimated real total return to 2036, by CAPE multiple applied

What this is: Cape Fear's CAPE ratio implies a 10-year average real earnings base (real S&P 500 price ÷ CAPE). Grow that base at an assumed real rate for 10 years, then multiply by a chosen CAPE multiple, and you get an estimated real index level. Only the growth rate (slider) and the multiple (four rows below) are assumptions — everything else is arithmetic on today's actual reading. Move the slider; the only scenario that avoids a real decline is the market staying exactly as expensive as it is today. The Nominal toggle adds one further, separately-disclosed assumption — market-implied inflation — on top of the real figures; it doesn't change the underlying real analysis, just re-expresses it in future dollars.

Source: CAPE, real price and 10-year mean CAPE derived from the same Robert Shiller (Yale) dataset feeding Cape Fear (see that block for full series and methodology). Historical means: full history since Apr 1881, since Jan 1990, and since Jan 2009. Refresh alongside Cape Fear's monthly update. Inflation assumption: FRED T10YIE (10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate).

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MoneySpider | The Debt Garden

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The Debt Garden — Full Scoreboard · Click column header to sort · — = data pending

Company	Valued@	ATH% AGE
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Micro · Flows — Wealth Concentration

The Market's Golden Geese

Of 29,754 US common stocks listed since 1926, a tiny fraction laid every golden egg. The rest, on average, laid none — and the flock that matters is shrinking.

📊 Every figure on this page is drawn from Hendrik Bessembinder's century-long study of the U.S. stock market (source ↓)

🧭 Not Utopia's Eleven. That scoreboard tracks eleven live mega-caps, updated weekly. This is the whole century, all 29,754 stocks, a static academic dataset — the structural backdrop those eleven sit inside, not the same measurement.

$91T

Century wealth created

Net shareholder wealth, all US-listed common stocks, 1926–2025

46

Firms = half of it

Down from 90 firms in the 1926–2016 vintage of the same study

27.6%

Beat the market

Share of stocks whose lifetime return topped the value-weighted index

~60%

Failed to beat T-bills

Underperformed a one-month Treasury bill over their lifetime

The Geese

Rank every one of the 29,754 stocks by lifetime wealth created and plot the running total: the curve should climb steadily if wealth creation were spread around the flock. It doesn't. It snaps upward in the first few dozen names, then goes almost flat — most of the flock never lays another egg. Hover to read any point.

The Compression

Bessembinder has re-run this study across several vintages. Each time, the number of firms needed to account for half the market's total wealth has shrunk — cap-weighting means gains concentrate wherever price appreciation concentrates, and pulls more index weight toward fewer names as it goes.

Who's Carrying It

The individual top five, then how quickly the cumulative share climbs as the ranking widens.

Firm	Wealth Created	% of Century Total

Vintage honesty. Each study vintage above is that vintage's own reported figure at the time of publication — they are not restated onto one reconciled series. The 2025 paper's own restated 1926–2016 endpoint (89 firms / $43T) differs from the figure originally reported for that period (90 firms / $35T); both exist in Bessembinder's published work and neither has been altered here.

Source. Hendrik Bessembinder, "One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets" (SSRN #6438198), 1926–2025. Top-5 individual dollar figures cross-checked against two independent secondary summaries. This panel describes how index concentration arises mechanically from cap-weighting — it isn't a comment on whether that concentration is fair or unfair.

MoneySpider · Micro · Global StocksSnapshot · 5 Oct 2026

Trajectory Enquiries

Five questions about the companies on our roster: how many sit at their highest price, which of the Eight Legs are carrying them, who is out in front, how recent those highs are, and whether the strength is broad or narrow. This is our own hand-picked roster, not a world index.

10 of 206Companies at or within 1% of their highest priceOur roster · 5 Oct 2026

5 of 8Legs with at least one company at its highEight Legs

71.3%Average price as a share of each company's highSimple average, whole roster

EarthLeading leg, at 80.2% of high on averageHighest leg average

Line 1

How many are at their high?

The count10 of 206

The number you require is

10 of 206

For each company we divide today's price by the highest weekly closing price it has ever recorded. At 100% it is at its high. We count a company as at its high from 99% upward. A reading above 100%, marked *, means a new high that the weekly record has not caught up with yet.

At or within 1% of the high10

At 80% of the high or more88

Average across the roster71.3%

Companies on the roster206

Where the roster sits against its highs

Our roster, not a world index: companies chosen and maintained by MoneySpider across eight themes, listed in the US, UK, Europe, Canada and Australia.

Line 2

Which legs are carrying it?

The legsEarth leads, 80.2%

Each leg's average price as a share of its companies' highs. Bars turn green at 80%; the white line marks 80%.

Leg	Companies	At the high	Average % of high	Avg

Line 3

Who's out in front?

The leadersTop 5 in each leg

The five companies closest to their highs in each leg. Green names are at their high. We show the top five only: the lower end of each leg still has old highs that need checking.

% of high: today's price over the highest weekly close on record. 52-wk: today's price over the highest close of the past year. Set: how long ago the high was reached.

Line 4

How fresh are the highs?

Freshness12 of 40 this month

Of the 40 leaders in Line 3

12 set their high in the last 4 weeks

A high set last week says something about now. A high set years ago says the company has not been back since. This line looks only at the leaders shown in Line 3.

High set in the last 4 weeks12

5 to 52 weeks ago23

More than a year ago5

When each leader set its high

Today is on the right. The further left a dot sits, the older the high. The shaded strip is the last 4 weeks.

Line 5

Is this broad or narrow?

Broad or narrow5 of 8 legs

Legs with a company at its high

5 of 8

Strength shows up in most legs. But only 10 companies, about 5% of the roster, are actually at their highs.

What would change this answer

"Broad" fails

If fewer than 3 legs have a company at its high for 4 weeks in a row.

This week: 5 legs

"Narrow" fails

If 6 or more legs have a company at its high for 4 weeks in a row.

This week: 5 legs

The page shows this week's count. The four-week run is checked each Monday from the weekly records.

The case that this is broad

Most legs are involved. Companies at their highs come from different parts of the economy, not one theme.
Many are close. 88 of 206 companies are at 80% of their high or better.

The case that this is narrow

Few are actually there. About one company in twenty is at its high.
The roster is ours. It is hand-picked, not the market, and the legs differ in size (24 to 30 companies).
Not all highs are equal. A company that fell 80% and recovered reaches the same 100% as a steady compounder.

The High Water Mark

Every stock MoneySpider monitors, measured against the highest level it has ever reached in our records — organised by the Eight Legs.

High Tides

Companies at or within 1% of their recorded high (99.0% or above).

Company	% of high

The Eight Legs

Companies covered and the simple (unweighted) average distance from their highs, leg by leg.

Leg	Companies	Avg % of high

* Live price above the stored high — the price has moved past the highest level in MoneySpider's weekly-updated monitoring records; the record catches up at the next weekly refresh.
Highs are the highest prices in MoneySpider's monitoring records.
All figures are ratios of each stock's own price in its own listing currency — unaffected by exchange rates or splits. Prices via Google Finance through the MoneySpider monitoring sheet; refreshed on page load.

Leg by Leg

The full register — every stock MoneySpider monitors, grouped by leg and ranked by distance from its high. Recent form on the left, the long verdict on the right.

Company	% of 52-wk high	% of high (age)

Ranked within each leg by % of high, best first. Age is how long ago the high was set — weeks under two years, then years. Green marks a company at or within 1% of its high.
* Live price above the stored high — the price has moved past the highest level in MoneySpider's weekly-updated monitoring records; the record catches up at the next weekly refresh.
Highs are the highest prices in MoneySpider's monitoring records.
All figures are ratios of each stock's own price in its own listing currency — unaffected by exchange rates or splits. Prices via Google Finance through the MoneySpider monitoring sheet; refreshed on page load.