Readings — 11 October 2026
MACRO — THE ECONOMY
Trajectory Enquiries: US Debt: total public debt rose to $40.39T (15 Oct), from $40.26T (1 Oct); pace quickened slightly to ~149 days per trillion, from ~152; bill share eased to 22.4% (30 Sep), from 22.8% (31 Aug); the 10-year moved to 5.09% (16 Oct), from 5.28%, against an average rate paid that rose to 3.53%, from 3.49%. [Confirmed]
Trajectory Enquiries: US Markets: unchanged at 255% (Q2 2026), still Significantly Overvalued — next update mid-December with Q3 data. [Confirmed unchanged]
Trajectory Enquiries: US Inflation: unchanged at 12¢ (a 1971 dollar, CPI, Aug 2026); live gold rose to $4,166/oz, from $4,154. [Confirmed]
This week's Macro signal sits one line further down this panel: Trajectory Enquiries' Treasury Yields card now reads 10-year 5.09% / 30-year 5.43%, against a 10-year–2-year spread of +0.35 points. [Confirmed]
MICRO — THE STOCKS
Trajectory Enquiries: Global Stocks: 10 of 206 companies on our roster at or within 1% of their high, from 13 of 205; 5 of 8 legs still have at least one company at its high. [Confirmed]
Utopia's Eleven: combined empire eased to $28.54T, from $29.30T; Nvidia to $5.16T, from $5.64T, still the largest holding; Banquo's Ghost widened to $3.91T, from $3.01T. [Confirmed]
Cape Fear / Mathematical Scenarios: unchanged at CAPE 42.18 (Jul 2026 print). [Confirmed unchanged]
The High Water Mark / Leg by Leg: 205 companies tracked, unchanged; average % of high rose to 75.5%, from 71.8%. [Confirmed]
The Debt Garden: eased to $27.1B, from $27.7B; Ares Capital still largest. [Confirmed]
The Market's Golden Geese: unchanged — same 1926–2025 dataset.
DEMOS — THE PEOPLE
The Mood of the Crowd: US unchanged at 48.1 (Sept final, lowest on record since 1952); UK rose to the 57th percentile (Sept, in arrears), from the 52nd (Aug). [Confirmed]
Hot or Not: unchanged at 32% (Reuters/Ipsos, 17 Sep). [Confirmed unchanged]
The Camel's Back: no live feed, nothing to update.
POLIS — THE STATE
The Watchtower: US midterms now 16 days out, from 29; next Fed decision 10 days out, from 23. [Confirmed]
The Gold Hole: rose to $49.41bn, from $49.25bn; gold CAGR since the sale unchanged at 11.3% a year. [Confirmed]
The Long Fuse: no live feed, nothing to update.
FLOWS — THE CAPITAL
Net Liquidity Tracker: unchanged at $5.78T (30 Sep). [Confirmed unchanged]
The Tide Table: unchanged — year-end 2025 data.
Mind the Gap: unchanged at ¥159.21 and a 1.81pp US–Japan 10-year spread — still dated 21 Aug, now seven-plus weeks stale against a week whose own lead story is long-end yields; worth a refresh. [Confirmed, stale]