Readings — 4 October 2026
MACRO — THE ECONOMY
Trajectory Enquiries: US Debt: total public debt rose to $40.26T (1 Oct), from $40.07T (24 Sep); pace slowed to ~152 days per trillion, from ~140; bill share unchanged at 22.8% (31 Aug); the 10-year, now read live, moved from 5.11% to 5.28% (2 Oct) against an unchanged 3.49% average rate paid. [Confirmed]
NEW — Trajectory Enquiries: US Markets (live since 1 Oct, replacing Manic Mr Market): the Buffett Indicator moved from 218.1% (Q1 2026) to 255% (Q2 2026), a record, still Significantly Overvalued. [Confirmed]
NEW — Trajectory Enquiries: US Inflation (live since 29 Sep, replacing The Melting Anchor): a 1971 dollar is worth 12¢ today (CPI, Aug 2026); live gold eased to $4,154/oz, from $4,166. [Confirmed]
The Interest Bill, Red Ink Rising, The Melting Anchor, The Treasury’s Treadmill, A Trillion Here, The Wiggle Room, The Snowball and the US Treasury Dashboard have been folded into the Trajectory Enquiries panels; their figures continue there.
MICRO — THE STOCKS
NEW — Trajectory Enquiries: Global Stocks (live since 5 Oct): 13 of 205 companies on our roster at or within 1% of their high; 5 of 8 legs have at least one company at its high; Earth leads at 81.6% of high on average. [Confirmed]
Utopia’s Eleven: combined empire rose to $29.30T, from $29.07T; Nvidia to $5.64T, from $5.42T, still the largest holding. Banquo’s Ghost stands at $3.01T. [Confirmed]
Cape Fear / Mathematical Scenarios: unchanged at CAPE 42.18 (Jul 2026 print). [Confirmed unchanged]
The High Water Mark / Leg by Leg: 205 companies tracked; average % of high fell to 71.8%, from 73.1%. [Confirmed]
The Debt Garden: eased to $27.7B, from $28.3B; Ares Capital still largest. [Confirmed]
The Market’s Golden Geese: unchanged — same 1926–2025 dataset.
DEMOS — THE PEOPLE
The Mood of the Crowd: unchanged since 27 Sep — US 48.1 (Sep final, lowest on record since 1952); UK 52nd percentile (Aug, in arrears). [Confirmed unchanged]
Hot or Not: unchanged at 32% (Reuters/Ipsos, 17 Sep). [Confirmed unchanged]
The Camel’s Back: no live feed, nothing to update.
POLIS — THE STATE
The Watchtower: US midterms now 29 days out (from 36); next Fed decision 23 days out (from 30). [Confirmed]
The Gold Hole: eased to $49.25bn, from $49.40bn; gold CAGR since the sale 11.3% a year (from 11.4%). [Confirmed]
The Long Fuse: no live feed, nothing to update.
FLOWS — THE CAPITAL
Net Liquidity Tracker: moved from $5.80T (12 Aug) to $5.78T (30 Sep), current again after a seven-week gap. [Confirmed]
The Tide Table: unchanged — year-end 2025 data.
Mind the Gap: unchanged at ¥159.21 and a 1.81pp US–Japan 10-year spread — still dated 21 Aug. It now opens with the Fed broad dollar index, moved across from the retired US Treasury Dashboard. [Confirmed, stale]