Readings — 27 September 2026
MACRO — THE ECONOMY
NEW — Trajectory Enquiries: live on /macro since 25 Sep. Total public debt $40.07T (24 Sep); ~140 days per trillion on the trailing 12 months; bills 22.8% of marketable debt (31 Aug); market 10-year 5.11% (baked, 23 Sep) against 3.49% average rate paid (Aug). [Confirmed]
NEW — The Treasury’s Treadmill: live on /macro since 24 Sep. Bills 22.8% of marketable debt (31 Aug); average rate paid 3.49% (Aug) against a 5.11% market 10-year (baked, 23 Sep); debt reprices on average every 30.7 months (TBAC, Q2). [Confirmed]
The Interest Bill: FYTD gross interest unchanged at $1.27T (31 Aug print); the debt itself eased to $40.07T (24 Sep), from $40.09T (17 Sep). [Confirmed]
Manic Mr Market: unchanged at 218.1% (2026 Q1), Significantly Overvalued. [Confirmed unchanged]
The Melting Anchor: live gold firmed to $4,166/oz (was $4,050); the dollar’s 1971 gold value eased to 0.84% (was 0.86%). [Confirmed]
Red Ink Rising, The Wiggle Room, The Snowball, A Trillion Here: unchanged since 20 Sep — annual or snapshot data, nothing new posted.
US Treasury Dashboard: refreshed on 24 Sep — yields now dated 23 Sep (10-year 5.11%, 30-year 5.40%), broad dollar 119.51 (18 Sep); the federal-debt panel was retired in favour of The Interest Bill and Trajectory Enquiries. [Confirmed]
MICRO — THE STOCKS
Utopia’s Eleven: combined empire rose to $29.07T (from $28.41T); Nvidia to $5.42T (from $5.36T), still the largest holding. [Confirmed]
Cape Fear / Mathematical Scenarios: unchanged at CAPE 42.18 (Jul 2026 print). [Confirmed unchanged]
The High Water Mark / Leg by Leg: 205 companies tracked; average % of high fell to 73.1% (from 75.5%). [Confirmed]
The Debt Garden: eased to $28.3B (from $28.6B); Ares Capital still largest. [Confirmed]
The Market’s Golden Geese: unchanged — same 1926–2025 dataset.
DEMOS — THE PEOPLE
The Mood of the Crowd: US moved from 51.7 (Aug final) to 48.1 (Sep final) — now at the very bottom of its history since 1952; UK unchanged at −8.0 (Aug, 52nd percentile, in arrears). [Confirmed]
Hot or Not: moved from 35% (8 Jun) to 32% (Reuters/Ipsos, 17 Sep) after the 23 Sep refresh, with a new “This term, up close” panel. [Confirmed]
The Camel’s Back: no live feed, nothing to update.
POLIS — THE STATE
The Watchtower: US midterms now 36 days out (from 43); next Fed decision 30 days out (from 37). [Confirmed]
The Gold Hole: eased to $49.40bn (from $51.76bn); gold CAGR since the sale 11.4% a year. [Confirmed]
The Long Fuse: no live feed, nothing to update.
FLOWS — THE CAPITAL
Net Liquidity Tracker: unchanged at $5.80T — still the 12 Aug reading; refresh overdue. [Confirmed, stale]
The Tide Table: unchanged — year-end 2025 data.
Mind the Gap: unchanged at ¥159.21 and a 1.81pp US–Japan 10-year spread — still dated 21 Aug. [Confirmed, stale]