Readings — 25 October 2026
Deltas are against the 18 October draft, the previous edition on file.
MACRO — THE ECONOMY
Trajectory Enquiries: US Debt: total public debt $40.44T (22 Oct), from $40.39T; still ~149 days per trillion and 22.4% of marketable debt in bills (30 Sep); the 10-year at 5.00% (23 Oct), from 5.09%, against an average rate paid of 3.53%, so the gap is +1.47 points. FY2026 gross interest unchanged at $1.36T. [Confirmed]
Trajectory Enquiries: US Markets: unchanged at 255% (Q2 2026), still Significantly Overvalued — next update mid-December with Q3 data. [Confirmed unchanged]
Trajectory Enquiries: US Inflation: unchanged at 12¢ (a 1971 dollar, CPI, Aug 2026) — September’s CPI, published 14 October, has still not been added; live gold fell to $4,017/oz, from $4,180. [Confirmed]
Treasury Yields (inside Trajectory Enquiries, Line 4): 10-year 5.00% and 30-year 5.33% on 23 Oct; the 10-year minus 2-year spread +0.31 points. [Confirmed]
MICRO — THE STOCKS
Trajectory Enquiries: Global Stocks: 27 of 525 companies on our roster at or within 1% of their high, from 20 of 366 (the roster has grown, so the count is not like-for-like); all 8 legs now have at least one company at its high, from 7 of 8; Earth is the leading leg at 73.5% of high on average; 27 of the 40 most recent highs came this month. [Confirmed]
Utopia’s Eleven: $28.13T combined empire, from $28.54T; Nvidia still the largest at $5.08T, from $5.16T, with Apple close behind at $5.07T; Banquo’s Ghost (value shed from highs) up to $4.38T, from $3.91T. [Confirmed]
Cape Fear / Mathematical Scenarios: unchanged at CAPE 42.18 (Jul 2026 print). [Confirmed unchanged]
The High Water Mark / Leg by Leg: 525 companies tracked, from 366; average % of high 67.3%, from 69.3% — the larger roster is not like-for-like. [Confirmed]
The Debt Garden: $27.0B combined, from $27.1B; Ares Capital still largest at $13.4B; all 6 constituents below their series highs. [Confirmed]
The Market’s Golden Geese: unchanged — same 1926–2025 dataset.
DEMOS — THE PEOPLE
The Mood of the Crowd: US updated to 48.0 (Oct final), from 48.1, in the 0th percentile since 1952; UK unchanged at the 57th percentile (Sept). [Confirmed]
Hot or Not: unchanged at 32% (latest read 17 Sep; the page was last refreshed 23 Sep, so the monthly refresh is due). [Confirmed unchanged, stale]
The Camel’s Back: no live feed, nothing to update.
POLIS — THE STATE
The Watchtower: US midterms now 8 days out, from 15; next Fed decision 2 days out, from 9, with the UK Autumn Budget and OBR outlook now on the board for the same day (28 Oct). [Confirmed]
The Gold Hole: eased to $47.52bn, from $49.60bn, as gold fell; gold CAGR since the sale 11.2% a year, from 11.4%. [Confirmed]
The Long Fuse: no live feed, nothing to update.
FLOWS — THE CAPITAL
Net Liquidity Tracker: $5.80T (21 Oct), from $5.78T (30 Sep); Fed balance sheet $6,753.6B, from $6,743.0B; Treasury General Account $952.0B; overnight reverse repo $0.4B. [Confirmed]
The Tide Table: unchanged — year-end 2025 data.
Mind the Gap: unchanged at ¥159.21 and a 1.81pp US–Japan 10-year spread — still dated 21 Aug. [Confirmed, stale]