Readings — 18 October 2026
MACRO — THE ECONOMY
Trajectory Enquiries: US Debt: unchanged at $40.39T total public debt (15 Oct), ~149 days per trillion, 22.4% of marketable debt in bills (30 Sep), and the 10-year at 5.09% (16 Oct) against an average rate paid of 3.53%. The year-to-date interest card now shows the full FY2026 total, $1.36T, as the new fiscal year began on 1 October. [Confirmed]
Trajectory Enquiries: US Markets: unchanged at 255% (Q2 2026), still Significantly Overvalued — next update mid-December with Q3 data. [Confirmed unchanged]
Trajectory Enquiries: US Inflation: unchanged at 12¢ (a 1971 dollar, CPI, Aug 2026) — September's CPI was published on 14 October and has not yet been added; live gold rose to $4,180/oz, from $4,166. [Confirmed]
MICRO — THE STOCKS
Trajectory Enquiries: Global Stocks: 20 of 366 companies on our roster at or within 1% of their high, from 10 of 206 in the last edition (the roster has grown); 7 of 8 legs now have at least one company at its high, from 5 — the widest spread recorded. [Confirmed]
Utopia's Eleven: unchanged at a $28.54T combined empire; Nvidia still the largest at $5.16T; Banquo's Ghost unchanged at $3.91T. [Confirmed unchanged]
Cape Fear / Mathematical Scenarios: unchanged at CAPE 42.18 (Jul 2026 print). [Confirmed unchanged]
The High Water Mark / Leg by Leg: 366 companies tracked, from 205; average % of high 69.3%, from 75.5% — the larger roster is not like-for-like. [Confirmed]
The Debt Garden: unchanged at $27.1B; Ares Capital still largest. [Confirmed unchanged]
The Market's Golden Geese: unchanged — same 1926–2025 dataset.
DEMOS — THE PEOPLE
The Mood of the Crowd: US unchanged at 48.1 (Sept final, lowest on record since 1952); UK unchanged at the 57th percentile (Sept). [Confirmed unchanged]
Hot or Not: unchanged at 32% (Reuters/Ipsos, 17 Sep). [Confirmed unchanged]
The Camel's Back: no live feed, nothing to update.
POLIS — THE STATE
The Watchtower: US midterms now 15 days out, from 16; next Fed decision 9 days out, from 10. [Confirmed]
The Gold Hole: rose to $49.60bn, from $49.41bn; gold CAGR since the sale 11.4% a year, from 11.3%. [Confirmed]
The Long Fuse: no live feed, nothing to update.
FLOWS — THE CAPITAL
Net Liquidity Tracker: unchanged at $5.78T (30 Sep). [Confirmed unchanged]
The Tide Table: unchanged — year-end 2025 data.
Mind the Gap: unchanged at ¥159.21 and a 1.81pp US–Japan 10-year spread — still dated 21 Aug. [Confirmed, stale]