Readings — 13 September 2026
MACRO — THE ECONOMY
The Interest Bill: FYTD gross interest unchanged at $1.27T (still the 31 Aug print); the debt itself ticked up to $40.11T (15 Sep), from $40.10T (3 Sep). [Confirmed]
Manic Mr Market: unchanged at 218.1% (2026 Q1), still Significantly Overvalued — no new quarter posted yet. [Confirmed unchanged]
The Melting Anchor: live gold eased to $4,335/oz (was $4,394); the dollar’s 1971 gold value ticked up to 0.81% (was 0.80%). [Confirmed]
Red Ink Rising: unchanged — FY2025 net interest $970.1B, 13.84% of the federal budget.
The Wiggle Room: unchanged — FY2025 reading holds at 1.9¢ left of every revenue dollar; CBO’s FY2036 baseline still projects −10¢. [Confirmed]
US Treasury Dashboard: unchanged since the last edition, still dated 17 Aug (yields) and 14 Aug (dollar index, federal debt $39.93T) — now over a month behind The Interest Bill’s own debt figure above, still not reconciled. [Confirmed, stale]
The Snowball — first Readings appearance: FY2025 net interest ($970.1B) was 54.7% of that year’s whole deficit, up from 13% in FY2009; nine of the last nineteen fiscal years had a smaller total deficit than this year’s interest bill alone. [Confirmed]
A Trillion Here, A Trillion There — first Readings appearance: total federal debt $40.12T (2 Sep); at the trailing-12-month pace (~135 days per trillion, against ~4.5 years for the same climb in the 1990s), the next trillion arrives around 30 Dec 2026 on that stated assumption. [Confirmed]
MICRO — THE STOCKS
Utopia’s Eleven: combined empire rose to $27.83T (from $26.63T) even as NVIDIA itself eased to $5.15T (from $5.55T) — Apple now close behind at $4.85T. [Confirmed]
Cape Fear / Mathematical Scenarios: unchanged at CAPE 42.18 (Jul 2026 print), sixth edition running. [Confirmed unchanged]
The High Water Mark / Leg by Leg: ticked up to 205 companies tracked (from 204), averaging 72.4% of their recorded highs (from 74.1%). Five companies now share the lead at their exact high — HF Sinclair, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, Suncor and Valero — displacing Allianz SE, which held it last edition. [Confirmed]
The Debt Garden: eased to $28.6B (from $29.7B); Ares Capital still largest at $13.9B (from $14.4B). [Confirmed]
The Market’s Golden Geese — first Readings appearance: $91T of net US shareholder wealth created since 1926; just 46 firms account for half of it, down from 90 firms in the study’s 1926–2016 vintage. [Confirmed]
DEMOS — THE PEOPLE
The Mood of the Crowd: US unchanged at 51.7 (Aug 2026 final, 1st percentile); UK moved to −8.0 (Aug 2026, 52nd percentile), from −17.0 (Jun 2026, 24th percentile) — a genuine improvement, not just a fresher print. [Confirmed]
The Camel’s Back: unchanged at 155 — illustrative scaffolding, no live feed, nothing to update.
Hot or Not: unchanged — still 35% approval, latest read 8 Jun 2026 — no live feed, nothing to update.
POLIS — THE STATE
The Watchtower: US midterms now 47 days out (from 57), still 3 Nov 2026. The nearest rate decision has rolled again — from the ECB to the Bank of England, now 0 days out (today, 17 Sep), with the BoJ 1 day behind it, then the Fed’s FOMC at 41 days and the ECB at 42. [Confirmed]
The Long Fuse: no live feed, nothing to update.
The Gold Hole: eased to $51.55bn (from $52.30bn) — a ×15.8 multiple on the average sale price (was ×16.0); CAGR since the sale unchanged at 11.6% p.a. [Confirmed]
FLOWS — THE CAPITAL
Net Liquidity Tracker: unchanged — still $5.80T (12 Aug), the lag now running over five weeks behind today’s date. [Confirmed, Inferred still lagging]
The Tide Table: unchanged — same year-end-2025 dataset. [Confirmed]
Mind the Gap: unchanged — ¥159.21, spread 1.81pp, same dated readings as the last edition, now over a month behind. [Confirmed, Inferred still lagging]